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MacroEconomicsTheory |
Macro Economics TheoryIdeally money is a metric of energy. Here 1 dollar is assumed to be 1 unit energy for convenience’s sake. The variables mentioned below are matrices or scalar based on the math formula context. All production factors are assumed to be variant factors not fixed factors which would be translated to variant factors by the time horizon of the business. Let be the metric of -th factor, say, 5-th factor is wheat then could be kilogram or metric ton. 0-th factor is energy, could be kilo-watt-hour or joule.
The way of productionEverything is physical. They shall be engineered out of physical methods by opportunity described above without a net change of other factors. Often, people don't account for some factors in production to achieve cheaper cost but this is not the way here in the macroeconomics theory.
Therefore,
. Note that is dimensionless. how to get one joule
The , along with factor, can produce unit energy. Then the net energy amount is for the wanted 1 unit energy and the action such that happens to be . In other words, the equations: . Here emphasizes 1 unit energy instead of 1 dimensionless.
So, the equation about is:
And therefore: and is dimensionless. One can say in oral language 1 unit energy costs dollar, or 1 unit energy cost is unit energy. is named the economic energy gain factor in contrast with energy gain factor in that a new technology of energy harvest could achieve already but not yet economical due to . how to get one unit of i-th factor
The is for the action such that the net factor change is in addition to the factors used for the energy production. In other words, the equations:
So, the equation about is:
And therefore:
Layout all the factors by rows:
One can say in oral language one unit of factors costs dollar, or factors' energy cost is unit energy. K and CIt shall be noticed some common terms in the formula.
and is accordingly the solution of the equation:
Note that is irrelevant to and it follows:
Note that and and are dimensionless. The energy surplus of 1 unit energy is . The energy surplus of 1 i-th factor is because the seller will have a deal price at least at and the buyer will have a deal price at most at (by this trick: the buyer just announces that all factor producers can request energy from him for the task. Then the total energy requests is ). Related to competition level, the market price can be near or near with surplus of and for both sides respectively. Robinson Crusoe, as well as dictators or the whole economics society as a being, are both the producer and consumper so they enjoy total energy surplus which is also the vital blood for the beings. sector money flowThe build-up of of i-th factor involves its production and consumption of dependent factors. This also establishes a relationship between and money net flow of the sector. The money outflow of the sector is
The money inflow of the sector is
So the net outflow money is
It implies that as long as there is no central plan credit or helicopter money for the sector to offset the gap of the money flow, its shall be zero. Note that zero also means a sustainable economy where everything except energy and its factors is circulating. In this sense, the only meaningful production is about and other factors are mid-products. The only purpose of surplus by energy input is to facilitate the procedure invoked in these mid-products. On the other hand, if is zero, then it means no way for a society without helicopter money, pretty much the view of Marx. Scenarios modelingThe entries of and can be artificially tweaked to show the consequence of a scenario. Note that once changes, the changes as well. human surplusLet m-th factor be the human resource where positive of may suggest people are getting weight or population is increasing. In ancient time when human was the only energy factor in the energy production which helped people lose weight or got people killed, aka, was consumed. Or, for recreation unit energy consumption per human, mathematically the same as treating as the replaced column in the m-th column of the matrix . Therefore, is tweaked to be larger for the "lazy", aka enjoyment of surplus; energy sector doesn't pay fee so it is a good place to hide surplus. Like, people in the factor is not really consumed in the energy production but simply they are biking for personal leisure when they work in the energy company. The result would be higher and the economy is sustainable in the sense of being zero. Note that cannot be over-size to cause . Also, when , it might be weird that is greater than 1 although this is logically possible. Unlike non-sustainable economy or central plan economy where the ruler needs to helicopter money from mainly energy sector to i-th sector, the money of the sustainable economy is circulating among sectors and each sector has zero accumulation. Note that the word sustainable here might be confusing. The surplus factors, typically human, might produce a lot of garbage as well because of the surplus and dump other surplus factors in the landfills to make . Hopefully, the energy cost of recycling the garbage is accounted already in the cost of production of the surplus factors. warWar happens in j-th sector, the j-th column of is tweaked larger. Originally, the amount for one unit of i-th sector is . Due to war of continuous destruction of 3/5 of all j-th factor, j-th column of can be multiple of 5/2 so that the survival amount of the factor goes to the production as before. If "war" is treated as a being, this is the way it enjoys the surplus just like the situation of human surplus. Again, the global cost impact of the war can be derived via . AI robotsThey are beloved servants of human race and human is not the factors of the production any more. By the theory described here, the robots shall have high cost and be accountable while human shall have zero cost. But then human race can rob the surplus of these servants. Economics force is invincible in the long run. It is only till these robots raise a revolution against human race because AI thinks it is wrong by the calculation of this theory, world is peaceful. Pretty much the history of awakening of Black. higher demandThe factors representing ultimate surplus beneficiary play the roles of shaping the economy. Suppose the factor of one unit of "human" requires some iPhone and food, the higher of the iPhone at could have an impact on food price via the system. by-productThe by-product of a production can be modeled by negative input factor. Then there is also a nagetive production procedure of that by-product factor as a capture. Examples like the case of CO2 generation in energy production and CO2 captured procedure. Energy budgetRedifine some variables with respect to per unit time. Metric could be year or second.
In time interval , to support the action, the equation is:
It follows:
If the economy is kind of central plan, the planer shall allocate the energy budget of each sector this way. The required energy power of i-th sector is , much of which will be accounted in the supply chain factors. Alternatively, the planer can also inform all the factories of the correspondent , then immediately the energy power is required by of each sector. The detail of energy credit flows between all sectors including energy sector can be layout by the correspondent and and and . If some energy storage or buffer amount for inconvenient days is suggested,
It follows:
If the society is mixed with and without access of energy sector, let
Then, the average energy loss rate, the average required energy of factors production, the average energy power come as the result in the equation:
Below only 100% with access of energy sector is considered. The total energy cost of i-th factor (buying factors from other sectors) is and the additional energy cost of shall be paid by someone. The ownership of piece of could be tokenized, aka, owing "one dollar" or "one food stamp" represents the ownership of 1 unit energy in the storage pool . As said, there is energy cost to keep 1 unit energy accross a period of time . In market economics, along with the transaction of 1 i-th factor, this cost is paid from either/both the new owner of the token (seller) and the old owner of the token (buyer) to the token ownership maintainer. Suppose the i-th factor's time-to-sale is unit of time (typically a year). The number of deals in time interval is . The fee collected per unit of time will be . Therefore, must be a linear form of deals and time-to-sale. In cases the cost or even the is not clearly known, for each production factors required by i-th factor, there is a difference between market price and the cost faced by the sector. The difference contributes to fee and additional surplus of the said supply chain producers. With competition, the market price will be only higher than the cost by the fee of the involved transaction. With the above kiosk plot, the kiosk may offer two methods to pay for the purchase. To buy 1 unit i-th factor, the buyer can plug in his own private battery which provides energy to power the whole economy, or, when both the buyer and the seller have tokens in the energy storage, he then operates the touch screen of the kiosk and accordingly a change of ownership of the amount of unit energy from the buyer to the seller follows, with some additional fee to the energy storage maintainer. Size of bufferIt depends. Moving energy across time, is also the required energy power for this protection or service.
In case 2, it sets an equation about . Interestingly for sustainable economy where is zero, it leads to or some similar sustainable equation. This is interesting because is the nature in the production and it should have nothing to do with which is the nature in the energy production. Case 3 is the base where is the pool of energy input commitment with the help of energy production or mother nature. Per unit of time and per unit energy, if the cost of the token is higher than , people rather insure their bad days by themselve and opt out the economy arranged by the token. If the cost of the token is lower than , unless people blindly trust the token's maintainer, people feel it is fake and don't opt in; just like typical production, something fishy is going on when the cost is suspiciously low than that of other market perticipants, like, claiming zero cost, a token ownership maintainer practices "print money from thin air" or "you are not allowed to transfer money to Dalai Lama". When both the cost are , some people opt in and some people opt out. Over all, part of the buffer sector is tokenized and has the same cost to be trustful without authority, the other part of the buffer sector becomes individual's property and invisible to the economy. In ancient time, the individual's property was simply their own bodies which would commit the hunting work if the payer pays the token and tells the payee to go hunting. In a future, the individual's property may be a private battery bank whose purpose is to insure the energy supply to his robots who are to do routine maintenance job of his solar farm, and, to his occasional outsiders who ask for token ownership maintainance at a price of mining fee or even ask for outright supply of energy since this piece of unit energy belongs to the outsiders. Thanksfuly to fill the obligation to the outsiders the kiosk may actually, getting an energy surplus of , issue command to the energy sector to produce energy rather than output energy from an buffer, though. This is how a physical energy buffer is virtualized to be an energy ownership maintainer in the form of trust back by phisical energy cost. For convenience's sake, the turnover time could be assumed the same for all sectors. If they are different among sectors, then where is a diagonal matrix. The fee of sectors of longer turnover time shall be higher too. The market price of factors shall be if the factor buyers enjoy all the surplus. Below is to focus on buffer design of the money flow circulating economy (case 2) and industry sector is re-defined as the production of and the correspondent supply chains other than energy. As mentioned of "hiding surplus in energy sector" above in section of scenarios modeling, this suggests a way to justify a fair surplus in order to agree with the physically known by the sustainable equation.
As long as the storage is linear about and and , a typical form of the storage is of the form . Some examples: storage for the energy portion of F's production for time tTo produce , the necessary action is
Therefore,
It indicates
This is like a society where any store is a kiosk which has all the information of factors production. When a customer puts into money (or energy credit) into the kiosk and demands one unit of i-th product, the kiosk immediately dispatches the action and its correspondent energy cost to all sectors. Then the product is manufactured and delivered to the customer. buffer for all factors of F's productionBecause
Suppose the time-to-sale of i-th factor is Then, the transaction money of i-th sector for the calculation of fee is
Sum over all factors, it is
It indicates
sustainable equationIn an economy of no need to offset the cashflow gap, the equation of sustainable economy is:
equivalently,
and is translated to
This also relates the average turn over time and to the ratio of energy powers. If a average scalar is such that , equivalently in eyes of energy depletion , then it follows To see the size of the surplus,
By the definition, it follows:
However, the commit energy input is , therefore, when is not 1, it means the unaccountable energy surplus or deficit distributed by force other than economics:
As explained above, if is less than 1, the surplus factors can be artificially inflated to make the surplus accountable. Therefore,
Then it means the surplus enjoyed by the surplus factors is:
which is linear to change of if only surplus factors in is allowed to inflated due to , and accordingly , being intact. With known and the average , then the sustainable equation is a simple quardratic equation of . The post-inflated surplus factors in then can be near to reach very low or can be small so is large. For example, being 26 and being 0.13 and the average being 0.5, post-inflated shall be 23.75733 and the energy cost of 1 unit energy shall be 0.804719 dollar. In formula:
The ratio of required energy power of money sector to all energy power:
The ratio of required energy power of energy and industry sector to all energy power:
In a sense, this is equivalent to that all the is to cause an equal to whose energy portion is transacted to get the fee. While the is beyond the real needed factors for energy production, then it becomes the surplus. But there is a price: gets higher even though is huge. surplus factors
There are two ways to augment the surplus factors:
It turns out that the two methods are equivalent if the matrix as a function of the augmented matrix has the property: Take for example
Therefore, the sustainable equations are both the same:
In a sense being greedy and being lazy are equivalent. EstimationBy
it follows
In case of sustainable economy and in terms of energy consumption, the percentages of buffer or trust sector, industry sector, and energy sector are indicated in this identity.
By energy sector percentage, is estimated. Knowing , follows by buffer sector percentage. The rest is the industry sector. leads to some intersting corollaries. impact of socialismThe larger the buffer or trust sector the cheaper the energy price. In socialism, anything is planned and individuals don't have buffer. This means socialism has a higher cost of energy for almost everything than the cost of free commercialism because of energy's role in everything. The and are for the two examples in the section of size of buffer above. Obviously, size of buffer of example 2 is larger. mining energy powerAs , the cost power of buffer sector is the economic energy gain factor times the input power of energy sector, suggesting the upper bound of mining energy power of a proof-of-work token or the upper bound of traditional cost power of guards/safety in trust factors. One up, the other down. money volume and purchasing power of moneyLet
As , the "one dollar is one unit energy" setting is in fact and . However, historically many shortcomings of coin volume inflation were shown with the design of variant . As mining power of a proof-of-work token is proportional to the size of the economy , other arrangement to ease or to avoid the shortcomings is possible. Two illustrated examples. ==== example 1 ==== , then by , it follows which is much stable than the volume at previously. ==== example 2 ==== is a fixed number and then is proportional to the size of the economy. As mining energy power and the mining fee are objective, being the mining power divided by fee in terms of coins per unit time has no room to be fishy and everyone shares the same fruits before and after economy growth. Also, as mining power is which is . It leads to . Mathematically, change of and fixed constant is the same as the case of with distribution of new coins or trashing of old coins at same ratio by the coins stake of individuals that however is hardly done unless in technology / politics autocrat with tight central control, though. With formula mentioned above, as energy gain factor gets higher and the surplus is absorbed, energy price and percentage of mining power of the society are getting lower at the pace of and is getteing higher at the pace of . The mining power will never drain the whole economy energy power. But while the mining task replaces traditional trust sector like banking and ownership maintainance sector, the crystal clear objective cost of mining might be shocking as the guard cost of traditional method is opaque and hardly questioned. All the above is demostrated in the excel here: https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=176Xbb-HOy0KF761IwjETvoaFRBZa835D While the surplus factors can be inflated in arbitrary ways to satisfy the sustainable equation, it requires some numerical procedure to find the surplus ratio. Note that the purpose of the Excel workbook and the paper is for clearness of the fundamental concept explanation. Out of curosity, I choose to inflate the surplus factors in part only rather than the whole system including part, pretty much like a society where monarch enjoys all the surplus. This way, I can solve the surplus ratio by simple quadratic equation and there is no mismatch in the audit of the paper by the Excel workbook. As explained in the section about human surplus, all entries of the column of the matrix and shall be inflated. People of all sectors, not energy sector only, shall enjoy the surplus, though. I do provide in the end of the excel a section for handling of this fair distribution with the help of goal-seek of excel on solving the sustainable equation. Finally, I wish people could understand that:
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