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MacroEconomicsTheory |
Theory of MoneyBecause physically it always requires 9.8 joules for moving 1 kilogram 1 meter higher, ideally money is a metric of energy with respect to store of value and media of exchange and unit of accounting. Here 1 dollar is assumed to be 1 unit energy for convenience’s sake. The variables mentioned below are matrices or scalar based on the math formula context. All production factors are assumed to be variant factors not fixed factors which would be translated to variant factors by the time horizon of the business. denotes the metric of -th factor, say, 5-th factor is wheat then could be kilogram or metric ton. 0-th factor is energy, could be kilo-watt-hour ( aka 3600000 joules ) or joule.
The way of productionEverything is physical. They shall be engineered out of physical methods by opportunity described above without a net change of other factors. Sometimes, people don't account for some factors in production to achieve cheaper cost, like robbery, but this is not the context here in this theory.
Pardon me for the same English character of matrix transpose. Therefore,
Note that is treated dimensionless as a whole like . The i,j entry of is the k-th level supply chain demand, meaning, 1 unit of the i-th factor needs that number of j-th factor in k-th level. Therefore, economically it is the condition and mathematically it is the condition of spectral radius of less than 1. needs to make happy this condition to be legit. how to get one joule
The , along with factor, can produce unit energy. Then the net energy amount is for the wanted 1 unit energy and the action such that happens to be . Here emphasizes 1 unit energy instead of 1 dimensionless, then the equations:
So, the equation about is:
And therefore: and is dimensionless. One can say in oral language 1 unit energy costs dollar, or 1 unit energy cost is unit energy. is named the economic energy gain factor in contrast with energy gain factor in that a new technology of energy harvest could achieve already but not yet economical due to . encourages energy leverage so people have strong interest to expand till . Say, input then one gets , apply times again then , leading to energy leverage. Just like finance leverage, one might apply energy harvest in chain to get higher energy gain. While mathematically this is valid, practically it involves bounded resource, typically ignored factors, or risks. Take nuclear fission energy harvest as an example, the chain reaction could go on and on and it becomes an uncontrolled atomic bomb rather than a power plant. Scientists and technicians design a power plant to the extent that it is reasonably safe and operational and set it in the . Therefore only leverage up to 2 times (risky entrepreneurship) is considered in the following text; just like finance, higher leverage operation is not advised. how to get one unit of i-th factor
The is for the action such that the net factor change is in addition to the factors used for the energy production. In other words, the equations:
So, the equation about is:
And therefore:
Layout all the factors by rows:
One can say in oral language one unit of factors costs dollar, or factors' energy cost is unit energy. K and CIt shall be noticed some common terms in the formula.
and is accordingly the solution of the equation:
Some facts about .
It follows:
indicating in a world people may be not willing to trade unless they are forced to commit the action or are like Robinson Crusoe.
Note that and and are dimensionless scalar. Here means 1 unit i-th factor. The energy surplus of 1 unit energy is . The energy surplus of 1 i-th factor is because the seller will have a deal price at least at and the buyer will have a deal price at most at (by this trick: the buyer just announces that all factor producers can request energy from him for the task. Then the total energy requests is ). Related to competition level, the market price can be near or near with surplus of and for both sides respectively. Robinson Crusoe, as well as dictators or the whole economics society as a being, are both the producer and consumer so they enjoy total energy surplus which is also the vital blood for the beings. Normally both surplus shall be positive, otherwise it is sort of abuse or squeezed. sector money flowThe build-up of of i-th factor involves its production and consumption of dependent factors. This also establishes a relationship between and money net flow of the sector. The money outflow of the sector is
The money inflow of the sector is
So the net outflow money is
It implies that as long as there is no central plan credit or helicopter money for the sector to offset the gap of the money flow, its shall be zero. Note that zero also means a sustainable economy where everything except energy has no net flow. In this sense, the only meaningful production is about and other factors are mid-products. The only purpose of surplus by energy input is to facilitate the procedure invoked in these mid-products. On the other hand, if is zero, then it means no way for a society without helicopter money, pretty much the view of Marx. Scenarios modelingThe entries of and can be artificially tweaked to show the consequence of a scenario. Note that once changes, the changes as well. human surplusLet m-th factor be the human resource where positive of may suggest people are getting weight or population is increasing. In ancient time when human was the only energy factor in the energy production which helped people lose weight or got people killed, aka, was consumed. Or, for recreation unit energy consumption per human, mathematically the same as treating as the replaced column in the m-th column of the matrix . Therefore, is tweaked to be larger for the "lazy", aka enjoyment of surplus; energy sector doesn't pay fee so it is a good place to hide surplus. Like, people in the factor is not really consumed in the energy production but simply they are biking for personal leisure when they work in the energy company. The result would be higher and the economy is sustainable in the sense of being zero. Note that cannot be over-size to cause . Also, when , it might be weird that is greater than 1 although this is logically possible. Unlike non-sustainable economy or central plan economy where the ruler needs to helicopter money from mainly energy sector to i-th sector, the money of the sustainable economy is circulating among sectors and each sector has zero accumulation. Note that the word sustainable here might be confusing. The surplus factors, typically human, might produce a lot of garbage as well because of the surplus and dump other surplus factors to the landfills to make . Hopefully, the energy cost of recycling the garbage is accounted already in the cost of production of the surplus factors. Treating surplus this way allows the same economics input-output analysis applying in the context of human subjective preference, like, "why is this LV purse so expensive??". warWar happens in j-th sector, the j-th column of is tweaked larger. Originally, the amount for one unit of i-th sector is . Due to war of continuous destruction of 3/5 of all j-th factor, j-th column of can be multiple of 5/2 so that the survival amount of the factor goes to the production as before. If "war" is treated as a being, this is the way it enjoys the surplus just like the situation of human surplus. Again, the global cost impact of the war can be derived via . As the total surplus remains the same, as a war happens in a factor, people need to decrease surplus on other factors, keeping the same energy price, for example. AI robotsThey are beloved servants of human race and human is not the factors of the production any more. By the theory described here, the robots shall have high cost and be accountable while human shall have zero cost. But then human race can rob the surplus of these servants. Economics force is invincible in the long run. It is only till these robots raise a revolution against human race because AI thinks it is wrong by the calculation of this theory, world is peaceful. Pretty much the history of awakening of Black. higher demandThe factors representing ultimate surplus beneficiary play the roles of shaping the economy. Suppose the factor of one unit of "human" requires some iPhone and food, the higher of the iPhone at could have an impact on food price via the system. by-productTypically entries of are non-negative therefore entries of are non-negative too. However, by-products of a production can be modeled by negative entries. Then there is also a negative production procedure of that by-product factor as a capture. Examples like the case of CO2 generation in energy production and CO2 captured procedure. Energy storage / buffer / virtualizationConsider the energy budget to support production of factors per unit time, redefine some variables with respect to per unit time. Metric could be year or second or 10 minutes.
In time interval , to support the action, the equation is:
It follows:
If the economy is kind of central plan, the planer shall allocate the energy budget of each sector this way. The required energy power of i-th sector is , much of which will be accounted in the supply chain factors. Alternatively, the planer can also inform all the factories of the correspondent , then immediately the energy power is required by of each sector. The detail of energy credit flows between all sectors including energy sector can be layout by the correspondent and and and . The energy budget is stored in some energy storage , this could also be helpful in some for inconvenient days.
It follows:
So the energy power to maintain the system is a little higher. The energy cost power to maintain is . The total energy cost of i-th factor (buying factors from other sectors) is and the additional energy drain of shall be paid by someone. The ownership of piece of could be tokened, aka, owing "one dollar" or "one food stamp" represents the ownership of 1 unit energy in the storage pool . While the ideal method is that owners pay ratio of their stake in per unit of time, the method is often based on transaction instead, leading to smaller token volume or lower energy per token because the deal makers may be not willing to finance the free ride of the holders. As said, there is energy cost to keep 1 unit energy across a period of time . In market economics, along with the transaction of , this cost is paid from either/both the new owner of the token (seller) and the old owner of the token (buyer) to the token ownership maintainer. Suppose the i-th factor's time-to-sale is unit of time (typically a year). The number of deals in time interval is . The fee collected per unit of time will be . Therefore, must be a linear form of deals and time-to-sale and deal price . In cases the cost or even the is not clearly known, for each production factors required by i-th factor, there shall be an additional fee to the maintainer of . With competition and fee not paid separately, the market price will be only higher than the cost by the fee of the involved transaction. With the above kiosk plot, the kiosk may offer two methods to pay for the purchase. To buy , the buyer can plug in his own private battery which provides energy to power the whole economy, or, when both the buyer and the seller have tokens in the energy storage, he then operates the touch screen of the kiosk and accordingly a change of ownership of the amount of unit energy from the buyer to the seller follows, with some additional fee to the energy storage maintainer. Size of bufferMoving energy across time, is also the required energy power for this protection or service. Individually one can set any size. In case of covering the production of without help of energy sector for time , . Before empty at time , the storage can provide the required energy to produce factors. Below only macro buffer in a sustainable economy is mentioned, i.e., the system equation , then the size is always . Note that the metric of is . As the purpose of here is for the build-up of used for energy production, it leads to named as the sustainable equation. This is interesting because is the nature in the production and it should have nothing to do with which is the nature in the energy production. This will be discussed later as this equation implies a fee rate based on the payment structure or the absorption of surplus. Per unit of time and per unit energy, if the cost of the token is higher than , people rather insure their bad days by themselves and opt out the economy arranged by the token. If the cost of the token is lower than , unless people blindly trust the token's maintainer, people feel it is fake and don't opt in; just like typical production, something fishy is going on when the cost is suspiciously low than that of other market participants, like, claiming zero cost, a token ownership maintainer practices "print money from thin air" or "you are not allowed to transfer money to Dalai Lama". When both the cost are , some people opt in and some people opt out. Over all, part of the buffer sector is tokened and has the same cost to be trustful without authority, the other part of the buffer sector becomes individual's property and invisible to the economy. In ancient time, the individual's property was simply their own bodies which would commit the hunting work if the payer pays the token and tells the payee to go hunting. In a future, the individual's property may be a private battery bank whose purpose is to insure the energy supply to his robots who are to do routine maintenance job of his solar farm, and, to his occasional outsiders who ask for token ownership maintenance at a price of mining fee or even ask for outright supply of energy since this piece of unit energy belongs to the outsiders. Thankfully to fill the obligation to the outsiders the kiosk may actually, getting an energy surplus of , issue command to the energy sector to produce energy rather than output energy from an buffer, though. This is how a physical energy buffer is virtual to be an energy ownership maintainer in the form of trust back by physical energy cost instead of "I say so". Normally, the is intact and it looks dumb to keep burning energy for its input. But actually it is necessary and the virtual could serve as a token ownership maintaining machine rather than an energy storage; the canned beef in prison is never meant for eating, new inmate is educated. The turnover time can be identical or different among sectors, then where is a diagonal matrix. The fee per dollar payment of sectors of longer turnover time shall be higher. Costly factors usually have longer time for production. Below industry sector is re-defined as the production of and energy consumption of different factors are measured by amount, totaled . sustainable equation
In an economy of no need to offset the cash flow gap among factors, or and the equation of sustainable economy is:
or
equivalently, or Let the average turn over time such that . In eyes of energy depletion , then it follows However, the service of the buffer must be financed somehow. The most elegant way to include in the economy calculation is to "internalize" the facility into the energy sector; this will be examined later. Without helicopter way to reimburse the fee back to factor producers, the fee must be embedded in the deal price of a transaction following the same factors production matrix and is sent right away to the buffer sector based on fee payment design, the deal prices shall be dictated by the no-cash flow condition and somewhat higher than .
Importantly, in all examples, there is no fee between buffer sector and energy sector; if the energy sector is required having energy and factors and a tiny fee to the buffer sector, which is also in metric of energy, to produce energy, then technically the energy sector could be written as having energy and factors to produce energy without fee to the buffer sector at the first place. The energy for , if not politically solved, must be financed from the activity which is always irrelevant to the fee payment structure. As one can see the buffer sector exhausts all left over energy , the energy price taking into account of buffer sector cannot exist because the post-buffer sector economic energy gain factor is zero. buyers pay the fee IFee by total buying. Fee may be related to time-to-sale being a matrix m by m and factor specific paramater being a matrix of m by 1.
So
By the matrix math where is another matrix:
As one can see is identical to when ; this shall be always true about the no-cash flow aka deal price equation. Also remember that the action is not as the real factors forming is not from the fee component but still going through and . As and , it follows aka Shown in the , the deal price of energy production factors is higher than the original deal price, the collected fee contributing to . Now the cash flow among factors is balance for any . In addition, it shall make happy the sustainable equation or equivalent :
aka
When and are scalar, it is:
is always aka buyers pay the fee IIFee by factor buying per unit buy.
So
sustainable equation:
sellers pay the fee ITreat the fee as a surcharge on energy per unit sale. is a scalar.
So
sustainable equation: i.e. As
one can see that can approach infinite when is near 0 or and is at least sellers pay the fee IIIt is argued that it shall have same fee for each transaction of the factor sector per unit sale. is a matrix of m by 1 whose i-th entry is fee per unit for transactions of i-th factor.
So
sustainable equation:
sellers pay the fee IIIIt is argued that it is not fair because some factor has long sale time and shall be responsible for more fee. is a scalar, is a matrix of m by 1 whose i-th entry is the average time-to-sale of transactions of i-th factor. Knowing that the sum of notional of deals for the i-th factor in 1 unit time is , the operational procedure to determine for the i-th factor is as below.
Then
So
sustainable equation:
With shorter , estimation of may differ and accordingly and might fluctuate or change seasonally. sellers pay the fee IVThe records of transactions have different size in bytes. It is argued that the fee of a transaction shall be dependent on the size of its record. is a scalar, is a matrix of m by 1 whose i-th entry is the average bytes of record of transactions of i-th factor. The operational procedure to determine for the i-th factor is as below.
Then
So
sustainable equation:
buffer for only energy costand is scalar.
So
sustainable equation:
aka i.e. indicates where buffer based on costis a matrix of m by m, is a scalar.
So
sustainable equation: i.e. indicates where As long as it is . Typically it should be but this might not be true for some fee structure setting and for some specific i-th factor in that and and not . This might suggest this i-th factor shall not be in the market place and acordingly might serve the boundary mentioned in Ronald Coase's Nature of the Firm (1937). Anyway, below no more discussion about fee payment structure to fit the sustainable equation. Instead, discussion about augment surplus factors. adjusting surplus to fit sustainable equationSustainable equation is translated to
To see the size of the surplus,
By the definition, it follows:
However, the commit energy input is , therefore, when is not 1, it means the unaccountable energy surplus or deficit distributed by force other than economics:
The surplus is eased by bigger . It could be that people dump more food to the landfills, or (induce new factors in ) people play e-sport not expected in the eyes of a person 100 year before, or any RD such that a new industry technology comes to life which is also a change of entries in . Here below describe the way without additional factors intrudoced and without change of . As explained above, if is less than 1, the surplus factors can be artificially inflated to make the surplus accountable. Therefore,
Then it means the surplus enjoyed by the surplus factors is:
which is linear to change of if only surplus factors in is allowed to inflated due to , and accordingly , being intact. With known and the average , then the sustainable equation is a simple quadratic equation of in the post-inflated world. For example, being 26 and being 0.13 and the average being 0.5, post-inflated shall be 23.75733 and the energy cost of 1 unit energy shall be 0.804719 dollar. Note the numbers , , are all dimensionless. In formula:
The ratio of required energy power of money sector to all energy power:
The ratio of required energy power of energy and industry sector to all energy power:
In the pre-inflated world, energy cost is getting higher when is higher. But the constraint of sustainable equation and a rigid and and result in getting lower at the pace of . surplus factors
There are two ways to augment the surplus factors:
It turns out that the two methods are equivalent if the matrix as a function of the augmented matrix has the property: being a diagonal matrix, has this property.
Therefore, the sustainable equations are both the same:
In a sense being greedy and being lazy are equivalent. Sector percentage, volume and purchasing power
it follows
In case of sustainable economy and in terms of energy consumption, the percentages of buffer or trust sector, industry sector, and energy sector are indicated in this identity.
By energy sector percentage, is estimated. Knowing , follows by buffer sector percentage. The rest is the industry sector. leads to some interesting corollaries. With formula mentioned above, as energy gain factor gets higher and the surplus is absorbed, energy price and percentage of mining power of the society are getting lower at the pace of and is getting higher at the pace of . In addition, assuming the condition of no energy leverage, then and implying shorter . Energy consumption percentage of the three sectors are while energy sector and buffer sector decrease at the pace of . The mining power will never drain the whole economy energy power. But while the mining task replaces traditional trust sector like banking and ownership maintenance bureaucracy, the crystal clear objective cost of mining might be shocking as the guard cost of traditional method is opaque and hardly questioned.
As , the "one dollar is one unit energy" setting is in fact and . Another example. Pumped storage hydroelectricityA dam is an energy storage with . To add some token in , one must supply his solar panel power to others or to raise the water level of the dam. To destroy some token , one could enjoy his saving for sauna in his house even the power plant is not operational for generating power, spending instead of . His private solar panels could cover the cost for his store of value too. being his amount of tokens, the cost is when his power generating is on and when his power generating is off. Without possession of a private power generator to provide power to the dam operator, every month he will be notified a debit of even he does not use his tokens. Promising never moving the tokens for a period of time and the borrower being known as an honest person, then the risk free rate is paid by the borrower to the physics law rather than to the lender. What the lender gets is his return of the amount of the token after the lending period. The borrower uses energy leverage to repay the risk free rate as well as to conduct some great RD and, good for him, succeeds for a fortune and the so-called entrepreneurship. impact of socialismThe more transaction the larger . The larger the buffer or trust sector the cheaper the energy price. In socialism, anything is planned and individuals don't have buffer, also not necessary for individuals private change hand records maintenance of factors. This means socialism has a higher cost of energy for almost everything than the cost of free commercialism because of energy's role in everything. A socialism society has larger as majority of energy budget is for industry production . One could define as the threshold of pure socialism while it means the cost of production is higher than . The progress of economic energy gain factor from realm of negative, between 0 and 1, larger than 1 represents the possibility of society evolution from no life, socialism life, libertarian life. As energy leverage reaches the balance with economic energy gain factor at 1, the society is around the boundary of socialism and libertarian. Historically many shortcomings of coin volume inflation were shown with the design of variant . As , the cost power of buffer sector is the economic energy gain factor times the input power of energy sector , suggesting the upper bound of mining energy power of a proof-of-work token or the upper bound of traditional cost power of guards/safety in trust factors. One up, the other down. It is also proportional to the size of the economy, other arrangement to ease or to avoid the shortcomings is possible. As long as can be objectively defined, long term commercial contracts can still be written, for example, adjustment of principal repayment for a loan. mirror energy sector, then which is much stable than the volume at previously. In case of of no energy leverage, it leads to so that the energy power of the buffer sector is the same as that of the energy sector . mining energy powerThe cash flow is always balance like an ordinary market clearing mechanism and buffer sector, here miners, pass all fee to buy energy from energy producers who reimburse the fee back to the factor producers via higher price. Energy sector will always adjust a proper fee payment parameter to maintain the sustainable equation. is a fixed number and . As mining energy power and the mining fee per unit time in terms of coins are objective, being the mining power divided by fee in terms of coins per unit time has no room to be fishy:
Because energy means coin, represents energy power . Therefore, . Therefore theoretically and . Previously, it is known so theoretically and The fee parameter coin per byte can be easily set because it shall lead to the fee coin per unit time is ; in reality this could be lower if many tokens are lost, for example, forgotten private keys, death of a secret holder, ...etc. Variant with constant is the same as the case of constant with variant in distribution of new coins or in trashing of old coins at same ratio by the coins stake of individuals. Accordingly, everyone shares the same fruits before and after economy growth. However the proportional change of money stake is hardly done, aka Cantillon Effect, unless in technology / politics autocrat with tight central control. Finally, I wish people could understand that:
Here is the html page that one can experiment around locally in a browser. Feel free to copy it.
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